Directions for the Future of Research on Consumer Behaviour

There are so many changes and developments that have taken place since the start of the 21st century to talk about — social, technological, and environmental; the social dimension includes both socio-economic and socio-political changes. Consumers are affected by the shifts that surround them, modifying and adapting their behaviours of shopping, purchase and consumption. In an article published in Marketing Letters (2020), researchers Malter, Holbrook, Kahn, Parker, and Lehmann discuss the past, present, and future of consumer research [1]. Not just the topics, concepts and phenomena of consumer behaviour go through change, but also the data and methods used in research.

The future naturally attracts the most attention and interest, and so it will be in the focus of this post. Managers as well as consumers are intrigued about things to come, for personal and practical reasons. However, the past and present, reviewed by Malter and her colleagues, are important as background to understand and appreciate the predictions and expectations of consumer researchers about the future. For brevity, key essential themes from the past and present are described below.

The article of Malter et al. is organised around concepts (theoretical), methods, and aims that guide scientific enquiry. They follow this approach while moving through the past (1960-2020), present (2020), and future (towards 2040).

In the past, the authors identify two central periods: 1960-1969, and after 1980. On the one hand, they reach to earlier years (1940s-1950s) because theory foundational to consumer behaviour was developed in those years, although not directly concerned with marketing and consumer behaviour. On the other hand, they emphasise the late 1960s, since pivotal progress in development of theory and research methodology was reached then. The year 1969 is marked as a turning point in consumer behaviour with the foundation of the Association for Consumer Research (ACR). The theory of Buyer Behaviour was at the centre of research in the late 1960s — this school viewed the consumer or buyer largely as “a computer-like machine for processing information according to various formal rules” towards forming preferences and making (brand) purchase decisions (exhibiting economic rationality). The approach built around concepts, methods, and aims was encapsulated in consumer research at that time as the three R’s: rationality, rigour, and relevance, which continued so forth to the early 1980s. By then, new perspectives started to emerge. (Note: The Journal of Consumer Research, JCR, was launched in 1974.)

Two new major perspectives emerged as theoretical streams in the 1980s: Behavioural Economics and the Experiential approach to consumer behaviour (and later, marketing). Behavioural economics challenges the rationality of consumers-buyers (e.g. via biases and use of heuristics, later ‘nudging’ was introduced). The experiential view regards consumers as “flesh-and-blood human beings (rather than information-processing computer-like machines) focused on hedonic aspects of consumption“. The new perspectives that gained increased acceptance and strength since the early 1980s gave rise to reformed three I’s of consumer research: irrationality (broadened perspectives regarding illogical, heuristic, experiential or hedonic aspects of consumption), interpretation (qualitative, “post-modern”, symbolic approaches), and intrinsic motivation. The latter is especially intriguing as it pertains to carrying-out research “for the joy of pursuing a managerially irrelevant consumer study”, driven by curiosity, and freed from concern for the benefits to marketing practitioners. This brings us to another important evolution in the philosophy of consumer behaviour and related research, specifically its aims — it is the next theme.

Ever since the field of consumer behaviour was taking shape and further advanced, there has been a continuing debate over its status as an independent discipline, its relation to marketing, and the purpose of consumer research [1,2]. In the late 1960s, buyer behaviour research was taken as a sub-division of marketing research, wherein its aim was focused on “providing useful insights to marketing managers in making strategic decisions”. Respectively, consumer behaviour was also viewed as a sub-field of marketing rather than a field of its own (and some academics still hold to this view). This approach received a turn in the 1980s: The ‘sub-field’ of consumer behaviour started seeking its independence, weakening its attachment to necessities and practices of marketing management. Under the influence of early editors of JCR, “some researchers began to believe that consumer behavior is a phenomenon worthy of study of its own right — purely for the purpose of understanding better” (p. 149).

Over the years, consumer behaviour theory has been influenced by knowledge from economics, psychology, sociology and anthropology. Yet, the concepts have been adapted and developed in the definitive context of cognitions, emotions, experiences and behaviours of consumers. The body of knowledge accumulated on consumer behaviour has its own merits as a scientific domain. Still, its value in particular to marketing practitioners cannot be denied. Hence, consumer behaviour cannot be truly detached from marketing. While the field of consumer behaviour is not quite an independent discipline, it is appropriate to consider this field as multidisciplinary [2]. The debate is on-going about finding a “right” balance between theoretical insights and substantive relevance (i.e., to marketing applications). We will follow its evolution through the present and future.

The third theme to highlight is the transition to a digital age; the influence of digital transformation on consumption behaviours can already be seen at present (by 2020). Where consumers use more frequently and intensely digital media, tools and interfaces for many consumption-related activities, one has to consider, identify and evaluate how they impact past behaviours (e.g., divided attention and the use of competing information from different sources). Additionally, technology affected both the data sources and analytic methods being used in consumer research (e.g., transition to online surveys, Big Data & machine learning).

These shifts have also led to resume emphasis on managerial relevance. In other words, expectations rise again to recognise and emphasise “the importance of making consumer research useful outside academia — that is, to help companies, policy makers, and consumers” (p. 144). While respecting the contributions of discoveries and insights in research on consumer behaviour, there is renewed requirement from researchers (as before the 1980s) to suggest implications of their insights for marketing management.  

As we arrive to the future, Malter and her colleagues review and assess trends and directions in the next twenty years, towards 2040. Those emerged from predictions (or projections) received from 34 active consumer researchers. It appeared that consumer researchers could not ‘put their fingers’ on specific concepts that may evolve in the coming years. They referred to broader topics and trends that are more likely to gain greater focus and interest. First, researchers anticipate that familiar topics may be studied at a finer-grained level or from new perspectives.

• Comment: This difficulty of researchers to specify future concepts may arise from a few reasons. For example, researchers would usually refrain from revealing work on theories they may have just begun to study and develop. Research and development processes of theories also take several years, hence we will know of them perhaps closer to the middle of the prediction period. Furthermore, theories expected to be built with respect to future, moreover unforeseen events and developments — social, cultural, technological — could not be initiated yet.

Second, topics arising from concerns about social and environmental issues are expected to attract greater research attention. Third, technological advances, especially connected with artificial intelligence (AI), will generate dominating subjects for consumer research circa 2040. While AI is expected to have profound impact on consumers’ lives, we should also note the growing impact AI is likely to have on research methods (e.g., artificial neural networks & furthermore deep learning).

However, Malter et al. critically argue that current expectations of researchers about the impact of technology on consumers’ lives are “narrower than it should be”. For example, they expect technology to be integrated into aspects of identities, thoughts and personal relationships, and probably sooner than we realise. At a different level, major questions may be raised on relations with philosophy of mind, ethics and social inequality. Hence, the authors “suspect that the impact of technology on consumers and consumer research will be far broader than most consumer-behavior researchers anticipate” (p. 145).

Malter et al. identify three directions for methodologies in the expectations of consumer researchers: (1) We will use technologies not currently available or in wide use (e.g., what will include the next generation of AI learning algorithms? — though researchers already believe AI & robots may be used more for designing experiments rather than for executing and analysing the data); (2) Demand will increase for reliability and replicability of findings (e.g., experiments) and use of Big Data; (3) Increased reliance on “real data” (actual market activity, such as in online marketplaces). Thereby, young scholars are going to benefit in coming years from a “toolkit of methodologies for collecting and analysing “real world” data, including field consumer experiments, and analytical software (e.g., R, Python) for advanced statistical analyses, text mining and analyses of other forms of unstructured data (e.g., image, video, and audio).

In the future aims of consumer research, the contributing researchers foresee two dominating trends of moving towards increased relevance and reliability of consumer research; they believe efforts on these trends will help to safeguard the future of the field of consumer behaviour. This links us back to the aforementioned debate, since succeeding in these trends, it is argued, will depend on establishing a healthy balance between “producing more actionable implications for consumers, managers or policy makers” (marketing relevance or applicability) and generating theoretical insights. It may be noted that these goals do not necessarily have to conflict if building the theory is done in collaboration with managers and consumers, by listening to their conceptions, experiences and insights, and while focusing on how they actually behave (i.e., their theories-in-use) [3 & also see the previous post on this subject]. It would apply especially to a theory engaged in the intersection between consumer behaviour and marketing, thus relevant to management of consumer marketing.

Malter and her colleagues propose questions in various areas for consumer behaviour research to address in the future. For example, how will consumers handle multiple different information sources in different channels (e.g., bloggers and influencers, peer-to-peer evaluations and reviews)? The digital native generation is expected to be the leading force in creating the new norms. In another important matter, how will causes (e.g., sustainability, healthy lifestyles, fair labour practices) guide consumer behaviour. It is suggested, for instance, that brands favoured by previous generations may lose consumer support and they will prefer different brands that support and protect those values (this is actually already happening). There is particular interest in consumer expectations from retailers to be omni-channel entities that integrate information and marketing across all channels: bricks-and-mortar, online, and mobile. Furthermore, those retailers that utilise Big Data and AI-enabled tools are expected to be more competent in personalisation and customisation (e.g., it may involve new applications of the rising technology of generative AI).

There could be some more issues to consider. First, will consumers continue to endorse online social media platforms in their current state? Side by side with the benefits people enjoy in networking on those platforms, there has been growing criticism of the companies operating them, regarding the content posted on them (e.g., inciting, abusive language, disinformation or “fake news”) and the use of personal and behavioural data (e.g., ‘likes’, sharing, geo-location) for targeted advertising. Could there be future different models for social networking? Second, to what extent will consumers be tolerant versus resentful towards AI as its applications increase in scope and intervention? The primary concerns are likely to be a wish of consumers to preserve their autonomy and control over decisions and for privacy (the authors do raise a question about data privacy and security). Third, what comes next after generative AI? What impact will have future technological developments in AI and robotics (operational, analytic, and creative) on consumption behaviours?

In view of the changes and developments — technological, cultural and environmental — that already occurred, and those yet to come, Malter et al. highlight what seems stable: “However, despite shifting trends, the core of the field remained constant — namely to understand the motivations, thought processes, and experiences of individuals as they consume goods, services, information, and other offerings, and to use these insights to develop interventions to improve both marketing strategy for firms and consumer welfare for individuals and groups” (p. 146). They further raise the expectation that: “While research approaches will evolve, the core goals will remain consistent — namely to generate theoretically insightful, empirically supported, and substantially impactful research” (p. 146). The authors hereby suggest that these goals can coexist. This sounds as a good conclusion while setting direction with respect to the on-going debate.

The review and discussion of Malter and her colleagues is instructive and thought-provoking. It opens routes for discussion on where research on consumer behaviour is heading, in what directions will theory and knowledge in consumer behaviour will progress and evolve, and how all these will be connected to marketing practices in the real-world. Cues to the answers might be found in the preceding conclusion as stated by the authors above.

Ron Ventura, Ph.D. (Marketing)

Notes:

[1] The Past, Present and Future of Consumer Research; Maayan S. Malter, Morris B. Holbrook, Barbara E. Kahn, Jeffrey R. Parker, & Donald R. Lehmann, 2020; Marketing Letters, 31, pp. 137-149

[2] The Disciplinary Status of Consumer Behaviour: A Sociology of Science Perspective on Key Controversies; Deborah J. MacInnis and Valerie S. Folkes, 2010; Journal of Consumer Research, 36 (April), pp. 899-914.

[3] A Theories-in-Use Approach to Building Marketing Theory; Valarie A. Zeithaml, Bernard J. Jaworski, Ajai K. Kohli, Kapil R. Tuli, Wolfgang Ulaga, & Gerald Zaltman, 2020; Journal of Marketing, 84 (1), pp. 32-51 (available at ResearchGate.net).